From fossil fuels to renewable energies, Margarita Mediavilla, Luis Javier Miguel, Carlos de Castro. 26th International Systems Dynamics Conference, Atenas, Grecia, 20-24 junio 2008

From fossil fuels to renewable energies

Abstract.

This paper describes the model of an industrial society based on fossil fuels whose
supply decreases and the society is forced to develop alternative energy sources. It is conceived as an abstract model that captures the basic aspect of such a change, but in a simple and schematic way. Despite this, most of the important dynamics of this problem are included in the model. The results show interesting trends: the transition is possible but not straightforward. The technological change requires time and investment, and the dynamics of such investments are of vital importance. The system can also fall into a stage where no technological change is possible and the industrial ability of the society is lost.

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