Non conventional oil (draft). Referencia: Carlos de Castro, Luis Javier de Miguel y Margarita Mediavilla. 2009. “The role of non-conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil” (borrador del artículo publicado en Energy Policy. 37(5), 1825-1833)


In this paper, the possible substitution of conventional with non conventional oil is studied using system dynamics models. The model proposed in this paper is based on geological, economic and technological aspects, and it fits approximately the behaviour observed by Hubbert. A first validation of the model has been made with the USA oil production data. These USA data show that there is a good coincidence between our model and the reality. This model has been expanded in order to include the substitution of the conventional oil with the non conventional one for the World. The results show that, even under optimistic scenarios, the attenuation of the peak oil decline through the non conventional oil requires very high investment profiles.

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